Asset Identity · Hamburg Port Economy
Port throughput 2025
114.6 million tonnes — up 2.6% year on year
Demand convergence
Port economy, e-commerce, and nearshoring
Southern corridor share of take-up
Over 50% of all space take-up
Location basis
Structural geography — not a speculative location call
Physical Quality & ESG · The Dividing Line
Target specification
Grade A, ESG-compliant, post-2015 build
EU EPBD mandate — worst-performing stock retrofitted by 2030
16%
EU EPBD mandate — rising to 2033
26%
Non-compliant asset risk
Structural repricing — capital risk in the hold
Operational baseline
BREEAM or DGNB certification, eaves 10–12m
Occupancy & Leasing · Hamburg Prime
Vacancy
Effectively zero
Take-up 2025
approx. 315,000 sq m — up 26–32% year on year
Prime rent
EUR 8.50 per sq m — stable
Prime vs average gap
Widening — tenants paying up for the right asset
Income · Tenant & Lease Structure
Tenant base
Port economy, e-commerce, manufacturing
Covenant quality
Institutional grade across the demand base
Lease indexation
Commercial leases index to CPI
Inflation at 2.7% (March 2026)
Contractual income growth — not a headwind
Valuation & Margin of Safety
Prime logistics NIY
4.4% — stable since Q1 2024 (CBRE)
German CRE vs 2022 peak
approx. 8% below — entry pricing in the rate environment
Development pipeline
Constrained — land scarcity puts a hard floor under prime pricing
Price floor basis
Cost of building a replacement
Acquisition Cost Stack · Hamburg
Grunderwerbsteuer (land transfer tax)
5.5%
Notary and land registry
approx. 2%
Total acquisition cost stack
7–9%
Financing · Current Market
Senior LTV
50–60%
Mezzanine LTV
65–77%
Facility margins
150–180bp
Private credit
Active in the Basel III gap
German Bund yield
3.11% — highest since May 2011
Exit · Buyer Pool in a Stressed Market
Institutional logistics funds
Active
Pan-European core vehicles
Active
Family offices with long hold mandates
Active
Sovereign capital with EUR requirements
Active
Exit pool depth
Deepest in German market outside residential
Rate environment at exit (3–5 year hold)
Does not have to price in today's Bund level
Advisory
If you are allocating to European logistics or reassessing post-Hormuz, a 30-minute scoping call is the starting point. No brokerage, no referral arrangements. Fee-only, conflict-free.
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