The Supply Shock · Strait of Hormuz · March 2026

Brent crude close 27 March $112.57 — up 36% since 27 February
Physical Dubai delivery price Up 76%
Goldman Sachs Brent could exceed 2008 all-time high if flows remain suppressed
Tanker transits through Hormuz, 1–25 March 2026 142
Same period prior year 2,652
Gulf production cut 10 million barrels per day
IEA classification Largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market
Iran Foreign Minister (public statement) No negotiations with the enemy have happened — none are planned

This is not a spike. It is a repricing.

The Monetary Backdrop · ECB · Eurozone

ECB deposit rate 2.0% — paused March 19 after eight cuts June 2024 to June 2025
Rate hike risk Over a third of Reuters-surveyed economists forecast at least one increase 2026
ECB 2026 inflation forecast 2.6% — driven by energy
ECB 2026 growth forecast 0.9% — cut
Eurozone M2 EUR 16.2 trillion — growing 3.2% year on year

The liquidity from eight cuts is in the system. In an environment of energy-driven inflation, a paused cycle that cannot easily reverse, and expanding monetary supply, hard assets in legally certain EUR-denominated markets do not simply hold. They absorb. Energy-driven inflation erodes weaker currencies. EUR-denominated hard assets absorb both.

The Beneficiaries · Germany & Luxembourg

Germany oil import dependency 97% — Russian supply zero since August 2023
Luxembourg energy import dependency 90% — second highest in the EU
German real estate vs 2022 peak approx. 8% below — easing cycle repricing not finished
Germany: largest real estate market in Europe EUR 715 billion deployed since 2015
Germany housing shortfall 2024 105,000 units
Germany net migration 713 people per day — sustaining demand supply cannot meet
Germany: deaths exceed births by 200,000 annually — without migration population contracts
Luxembourg population growth 1.5% annually
Luxembourg building permits Q1 2025 Down 37.8% year on year
Luxembourg average apartment EUR 8,094 per sq m

Two markets. Two expressions of the same thesis. One macro backdrop. The inadvertent beneficiaries were always there. The shock just made them visible.

Advisory

If you are reassessing European allocation in light of the Hormuz repricing, a 30-minute scoping call is the starting point.

Book a scoping call →