When the dominant reserve currency expands at that rate, every fiat unit in every currency is competing against a larger pool of money chasing the same assets. Nominal asset prices rise. Most investors record that as a return. It is not. It is a partial offset against the dilution of the unit of account itself.

CPI tells you what you paid for goods. M2 expansion tells you how much the unit of account has been diluted. Two different numbers. Most return calculations show you one of them.

UK Residential · Five Layers · 2015 to 2026

UK house price January 2015 £179,492 (Land Registry)
UK house price January 2026 £268,000
Nominal appreciation approx. 49%
UK CPI cumulative 2015–2026 approx. 40%
Real appreciation in sterling approx. 9% over eleven years
GBP/USD 2015 approx. 1.53
GBP/USD 2026 approx. 1.33
Sterling depreciation vs USD approx. 13%
GBP/SGD 2015 approx. 2.10
GBP/SGD 2026 approx. 1.70
Sterling depreciation vs SGD approx. 19%
Global M2 expansion 2015–2026 approx. 87%
Return layers shown in most property analysis 1 of 5

The direction is the same regardless of which base currency the investor holds. Not a crash. Not a crisis. A slow, consistent erosion that does not appear in any property marketing material.

This is not a UK-specific problem. It is a cross-border investor problem. The yield figure you were quoted is denominated in local currency. The real return you actually receive is denominated in your base currency, after global monetary expansion, after local inflation, after currency movement, after the full acquisition cost stack. Those are five different numbers. Most analysis shows you one of them.

The MAS manages the SGD within a trade-weighted band with an explicit price stability mandate. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have expanded their money supplies at rates that structurally dilute the real value of returns denominated in their currencies. Currency and capital flows sit at the jurisdiction layer, above the asset. Not because exchange rates are unpredictable — they are. But because the direction of monetary policy, the track record of the central bank, and the long-run relationship between money supply growth and purchasing power are all observable before you commit capital.

Most investors never calculate it. They find out when they exit.

Advisory

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