Since 2015, global M2 has expanded 87%. The ECB ran rates to near zero and held them there. Portugal was the destination: tax incentive, residency pathway, STR income, and a credit environment that made the numbers work. The easing cycle built the thesis from the ground up.

That cycle broke in 2022 when rates rose sharply. The ECB then cut eight times from June 2024 to June 2025 before pausing. The 30 April decision was expected to cut again. Eurozone growth remains sluggish. The credit environment is moving back toward accommodation. The thesis it was built on is not moving with it.

Portugal · The Four Pillars Removed

NHR tax regime Gone. Replaced by IFICI from January 2024. Eligibility criteria narrowed significantly. The tax framework that drove the buyer cohort that priced Lisbon and Porto for a decade no longer applies to most of them.
Golden Visa property route Closed October 2023. Of the €7.3 billion attracted since 2012, 88% flowed through real estate. The 2,081 permits issued in 2024 went into funds and cultural projects. Not apartments.
Entry pathways Tightened every year since 2022. Manifestation of Interest abolished in 2024, resulting in a 60% drop in that arrival category. Job-seeker visa now restricted to highly qualified professionals. Family reunification requires two years of legal residence first.
Migration composition 1.5 million foreign residents, nearly four times the 2017 figure. But the dominant inflows are labour migrants in tourism, agriculture, and construction. Renters, not buyers at current price levels. The €2.8 billion institutional investment in 2025 went into offices, logistics, PBSA, and hospitality. Not residential.

The buyer who would have taken this off your hands in five years no longer qualifies. That is not a market timing problem. That is an exit liquidity problem.

And the price? The European Commission flagged Portuguese house prices as overvalued by approximately 35% in October 2025. Lisbon median prices rose 16.8% in 2025. The market is pricing in a structural tailwind that structurally no longer exists. When supply shortage resolves or residual demand softens, the correction will price in everything the market has ignored since 2023.

Knowing when not to deploy capital is more valuable than knowing when to.

Portugal is the live example of why the framework starts above the asset.

Advisory

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